U.S. army commanders have requested their Al Qaeda “allies” in Syria to assist overthrow President Bashar al-Assad.
The U.S. army, in collaboration with Turkey, fashioned an ad-hoc alliance of jihadi “rebels” so as to launch a counteroffensive to cease the Syrian military from chopping off an enormous chunk of “insurgent” held territory in east-Idleb.
In response to probably the most dependable reporter on the warfare in Syria, who anonymously blogs at his “Moon of Alabama” website, the USA Authorities and the Turkish Authorities are once more supporting the trouble by Al Qaeda in Syria to overthrow Syria’s Authorities, a minimum of in components of the nation that are presently occupied by U.S.-backed Kurds and/or jihadists.
On January 11th, he headlined “Syria – Erdogan (Once more) Switches Sides – Delivers New Provides For Terrorist Assaults” and reported:
al-Qaeda in Syria, presently labeled HTS, collaborating within the “insurgent” counterattack. 4 days in the past HTS revealed pictures of its [Al Qaeda’s Syrian] chief Joulini assembly together with his army commanders to evaluate the state of affairs.[“#BREAKING – Al Qaeda in #Syria ‘#HTS’ convened an emergency meeting of its military council led by #Saudi cleric #Jolani, about sudden defeat in southern #Idlib. Many Syrian opposition forces say the area was ‘sold out’ to the Syrian government after the Astana talks.”] It appeared unhealthy for them. The squabble with different “rebels” elevated. Two days in the past Jouliani issued a press release that HTS would cease combating different factions in Idleb to allow all to confront the advancing Syrian authorities forces. It appears that this was a situation for the renewed Turkish/U.S. help.
The counteroffensive may solely proceed as a result of Turkey (once more) delivered a whole bunch of tons of weapons to the jihadis. New provides of TOW anti-tank missiles, distributed solely by the CIA, have additionally been seen. (Turkey can be once more supplying jihadists in Libya. The Greek navy simply caught a ship going from Turkey to Libya with 29 containers filled with bomb precursors, detonators and different bomb making components.)
Uygur terrorists had been introduced from west-China to Syria on official Turkish passports issued by the Turkish embassy in Thailand. On September 18 2015 al-Qaeda (Nusra, HTS) and the Uyghur jihadist group Turkistan Islamic Get together stormed the lengthy besieged Abu al-Duhur airbase and executed 56 Syrian soldier. It’s this airbase the present Syrian assault in east-Idleb is aiming at.
He closes by asking rhetorically what may presumably have precipitated Turkey’s chief, Tayyip Erdogan, to show but once more to becoming a member of the U.S. aspect in opposition to the Syrian Authorities’s aspect in America’s ongoing lengthy (since 1949) warfare to overthrow Syria’s non-sectarian socialist Authorities and change it by one which’s run from Riyadh Saudi Arabia:
What was he promised by the White Home or the Pentagon for taking that threat and for once more altering sides?
Nonetheless, probably the most dependable publicly out there nonpartisan analyst of Center Japanese affairs, Abdul Bari Atwan, solutions that query from a unique standpoint, by headlining “Russia and the US more and more threat coming to blows in Syria” and explaining “Erdogan’s Alternative”:
Turkish President Recep Tayyib Erdogan is keenly conscious of the twin risk dealing with his strategic ambitions in Syria and the area. He’s dismayed each by the US’ plans to create a Kurdish enclave, and by the Russian- and Iranian-backed Syrian military advance in Idlib, which threatens the final main stronghold of his military and his shopper Syrian opposition forces such because the Nusra Entrance [Al Qaeda in Syria, now called HTS], the Free Syrian Military and Ahrar ash-Sham. That will spell the top of Turkey’s presence and affect within the nation.
The Turkish overseas ministry has spent the final two days summoning the ambassadors of the US (on Wednesday) and Iran and Russia (Tuesday) to lodge protests in opposition to their authorities’s insurance policies. It protested to the American cost d’affaires about his nation’s backing for the Kurds and their proposed enclave, and to the Russian and Iranian ambassadors concerning the Syrian military’s advance in Idlib, deeming it a violation of the Astana Accords underneath which the realm was designated a de-escalation zone.
Atwan’s article explains the robust proof that the Trump Administration had ordered the 5-6 January drone assaults in opposition to Russia’s air and naval bases in Syria. (Maybe Trump will quickly authorize what Hillary Clinton had constantly promised to impose in Syria: a “no-fly zone” there, which implies that the U.S. will shoot down any Russian or Syrian airplane — principally an all-out warfare by the U.S. in opposition to Russia and Syria, in Syrian territory.) Then, Atwan discusses the likeliest potential outcomes:
There was appreciable hypothesis concerning the choices out there to Russia ought to it resolve to retaliate [against Trump’s military assault against those two Russian military bases].
It may throw its full weight behind an assault on Idlib metropolis aimed toward eradicating all of the armed teams there – particularly Nusra and the opposite Turkish-backed actions – and bringing the realm fully again underneath authorities management. This can be a job the Syrian military already seems to have begun.
Alternatively, it has been prompt that Russia would possibly give the nod to pro-Iranian and pro-regime militias to mount direct assaults on the US army in each Syria and Iraq – alongside the traces of the 1983 bombing of the US Marines base in Beirut which prompted the withdrawal of American troops from Lebanon. And even to offer drones to rebel forces in Afghanistan to make use of in opposition to US and Nato troops.
In all chance, Moscow will suffice with supporting the primary possibility as first step so as to stop its bases in Syria from coming underneath additional assault, after which take into account tips on how to proceed – relying largely on how Washington reacts.
Erdogan can not afford to lose Vladimir Putin as an ally. The query to which the Russian president is now searching for a solution is whether or not or not Turkey knew or permitted of the tried drone assault launched from Idlib in opposition to Hmeimim. If the reply is affirmative, the results might be extraordinarily critical – a full-blown disaster in relations like that which adopted Turkey’s downing of a Russian warplane in 2015.
He concludes that regardless of the consequence can be, Erdogan himself can be in a drastically weakened worldwide place from this, and, moreover, that the chance of a scorching warfare between the U.S. and Russia is now maybe larger than it has ever been.
The US forces in Syria have by no means been invited into that nation, however are and have been purely invaders and occupiers of Syrian territory. Syria’s chief, Bashar al-Assad, has on a number of events threatened to get them organized out of Syria. He has withheld doing that, as a result of each Syria and its allies (Russia and Iran) wish to keep away from precipitating a world-destroying nuclear warfare between the U.S. and NATO versus Russia, by implementing Syria’s sovereignty, in its personal territory.
Presumably, if Assad did make such an announcement, equivalent to by saying that any overseas troops that stay within the nation past such-and-such a date can be instantly focused and attacked by the forces of Syria and its allies (together with Russia), then we will be in yet one more “Cuban Missile Disaster” and both the invaders will go away that nation, or else Russia will abandon Syria and haven’t any allies as a result of no worldwide credibility; or, else, the U.S. forces will go away by the pre-designated date, and America will finish its lengthy invasion of that nation, and America’s worldwide recognition as having lengthy been solely an invader of that nation — a nation which had by no means threatened U.S. nationwide safety — will turn out to be internationally simple; and the top of the post-WW-II world American empire will usher in a really totally different geostrategic actuality, which additionally can be a vastly safer world for each nation. At that time, NATO itself would finish; and the USA would thus lastly finish its aspect within the Chilly Struggle, 37 years after Russia in 1991 had completed so by releasing all different nations inside the Soviet Union, and by terminating its Warsaw Pact army alliance with different nations, even whereas the U.S. aspect refused to terminate its then-equivalent NATO army alliance in opposition to Russia.
Both NATO will finish, or else all of civilization (and maybe the entire human species and most species) on this planet will finish.
Donald Trump will make that selection. Erdogan won’t. However, first, Assad must make the selection to order the invaders out. It’s now a state of affairs through which both Assad will order America out and they’ll go away, or else America will defend its Kurdish, Al Qaeda, and different proxies in Syria, after which Russia will both bomb the occupying forces, or else abandon its protection of Syria’s sovereignty over Syria’s personal territory. That is how shut we now are to nuclear Armageddon — only a few steps away from that cliff.
Trump is continuous Obama’s warfare in opposition to Russia and its allies. This isn’t what he had promised to do when he was operating for the Presidency in opposition to Hillary Clinton, who overtly promised to escalate Obama’s warfare. Apparently, America’s ‘democracy’ provided its voters a selection between two mendacity excessive neoconservatives, however Trump turned out to be the higher liar — even when not practically pretty much as good a one as Obama had been. (Obama had relied very closely upon Al Qaeda in Syria; Trump has now clearly resumed that.)
A usually good abstract of what the respective objectives of Putin, Erdogan, and Assad, are in Syria, is right here. What’s lacking in it’s the aim of Trump in Syria. Nonetheless, in all probability a superb approximation is that Trump’s expectation is for America to proceed its proxy-war in Syria to interrupt off and management (‘defend’) a minimum of sufficient of Syria’s territory in order to create a hall by Syria for U.S. oil pipelines to turn out to be constructed there carrying Saudi oil and Qatari gasoline into the EU, and that this U.S.-Saudi warfare in opposition to Syria will outlast Russia’s and Iran’s persevering with efforts to stop any such break-up of Syria. Trump would possibly suppose that it is a contest of endurance. Nonetheless, if Assad orders Trump out of Syria, then that assumption may turn into false, and the denouement (no matter it’s) will come a lot sooner.